Forecasting the 2020 Elections and the Predictive Power of Midterms

By Edward Hamburg

When analysts feast on data as they project the outcomes of national elections in the United States, results from presidential-year contests are considered steak while those from midterms are dismissed as chopped liver. With no Presidential candidates heading party tickets, these “off-year” elections ordinarily get two-thirds the voter turnout and a fraction of the media attention of “on-year” contests. Few history books tell detailed and dramatic stories about midterm elections. At best, they are…